Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 6/29/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As we approach the second game of this National League Central showdown, the Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field on June 29, 2024. The Brewers are firmly in the hunt for division supremacy with a stellar 49-33 record, while the Cubs are floundering with a 38-45 mark this season. Milwaukee's 4-2 victory over Chicago yesterday only enhances the anticipation for this matchup.

The Brewers' potent offense, ranked 9th in MLB by THE BAT X, will be eager to capitalize on the Cubs' 16th-ranked bullpen. Boasting a .289 average and .789 OPS, William Contreras leads a Milwaukee lineup that excels at getting on base and stealing bases (2nd in MLB). Meanwhile, Jackson Chourio has been red-hot, hitting .400 with a 1.150 OPS over the last seven games.

On the mound, the Brewers will start Tobias Myers, who has been somewhat of an enigma. Despite his solid 3.12 ERA, his 4.12 xFIP suggests he's been fortunate thus far. Myers has a respectable 5-2 record in his 10 starts but projects to labor through 4.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs.

The Cubs will counter with Justin Steele, who, despite his 0-3 record in 11 starts, sports a noteworthy 3.08 ERA. Ranked 21st among starters, Steele's expected 3.59 xFIP hints at some regression. However, he's a low-walk pitcher (6.4 BB%) facing a disciplined Brewers offense ranked 3rd in drawing walks. This clash could neutralize one of Milwaukee's strengths.

The Cubs' offense, led by Ian Happ, ranks 18th overall, struggling with a .24 team batting average but showing potential in the power department. Seiya Suzuki has been a bright spot recently, posting a .276 average and .921 OPS with two homers over the last week.

With both teams equally priced at -110, betting markets expect a close game, aligning with THE BAT X projections that give the Cubs a slight edge with a 52% win probability. While Milwaukee's implied win probability stands at 50%, the Cubs seem poised to challenge their divisional rivals once more.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago's 92.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #7 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Tobias Myers has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+14.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 39 games (+11.95 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.97 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.51

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