Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins Prediction For 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Adam Oller - Marlins

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On August 25, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are out of contention for their respective divisions, with the Marlins currently holding a record of 46-83, while the Cubs sit at 65-65. In their last meeting on Saturday, the Cubs demolished the Marlins, and will look for a similar showing on Sunday.

The matchup features Adam Oller projected to start for the Marlins. Oller has had a rough go of it this season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 9.64, making him one of the least effective pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings. He faces a Cubs lineup that, despite ranking just 18th overall in offensive efficiency, has the potential to capitalize on his high walk rate, especially since they boast the 5th highest walk rate in the league.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad. Assad, who has shown resilience with a 6-3 record and an impressive 3.11 ERA, is looking to build off his successful outings. While his projections indicate some luck this season, he’s still expected to deliver an average performance, allowing 2.6 earned runs over 5.3 innings. The Marlins' offense, ranking 29th overall, has struggled significantly, further tilting the odds in favor of the Cubs.

With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs, the Cubs' favorable moneyline of -165 reflects their higher implied win probability at 60%. However, the Marlins are due for a breakout performance, as their numbers suggest potential for improvement against a pitcher like Assad, who could face challenges against their lineup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's sinker utilization has risen by 5.8% from last year to this one (29.8% to 35.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Michael Busch has big-time power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adam Oller is a pitch-to-contact type (18th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Adam Oller didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last GS and accumulated 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Jesus Sanchez will probably have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 59 games at home (+22.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 117 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+20.40 Units / 46% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.45 vs Miami Marlins 4.42

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