Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins Pick For 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins face off again on August 24, 2024, the stakes are palpable for the Cubs, who are looking to gain ground in a competitive National League race. The Cubs currently sit just above .500 with a record of 64-65, while the Marlins are struggling significantly at 46-82. This game is crucial for the Cubs as they cannot afford to drop games against teams like Miami, who are having a tough season.

In their last matchup, the Cubs secured a win, continuing their quest for consistency. The projections indicate that the Marlins will start Valente Bellozo, who has a respectable ERA of 2.45 despite being ranked 256th among starting pitchers in MLB, suggesting he has been quite lucky this season. Bellozo has only started six games but has demonstrated low walk rates (6.1 BB%) which may challenge the Cubs' patient offense, known for drawing walks. However, he may struggle today against a Cubs lineup that, despite being ranked 21st in total offense, is looking to exploit his high hit projections (4.9 per game).

On the other hand, Shota Imanaga, projected to start for the Cubs, brings a strong record of 9-3 with an impressive ERA of 3.11 and ranks 55th among starting pitchers. Imanaga's ability to limit walks (3.7 BB%) combined with the Marlins' low-walk offense may favor his chances today.

With the game total set at an average 8.0 runs, and with the Cubs favored at a moneyline of -165, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Marlins team, ultimately aiming to secure a vital victory in the series.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga's 2444-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Cody Bellinger tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Valente Bellozo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Derek Hill is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 67 games at home (+28.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 110 games (+7.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+7.90 Units / 31% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.98 vs Miami Marlins 4.1

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