Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies Pick For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the standings. The Rockies, at 56-92, are struggling in 5th place in the National League West, while the Cubs, with a record of 75-72, sit in 3rd place in the National League Central, fighting for a Wild Card spot.

In their last outing, the Rockies faced the Cubs in a tightly contested game, but ultimately the Rockies got the win in extra innings. The Rockies are projected to start Cal Quantrill in this matchup. On the other side of the mound, the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 15th in team batting average and 18th in home runs, indicating an average performance with some room for improvement. However, their struggles are evident in their 24th rank in stolen bases, showcasing a lack of speed on the basepaths. In contrast, the Cubs' offense ranks 18th in batting average, but they sit at 7th in stolen bases, highlighting their ability to create opportunities through speed.

Notably, the Rockies' best hitter over the last week has been Hunter Goodman, who has recorded 5 hits, 8 RBIs, and 3 home runs in just 5 games, boasting a .313 batting average and a 1.228 OPS. Meanwhile, Michael Busch has been the Cubs' standout, with a .400 batting average and a 1.229 OPS in the same timeframe.

With a Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, both teams are expected to put runs on the board. The projections favor the Cubs slightly, with an implied team total of 5.76 runs compared to the Rockies' 5.24. However, with the Rockies projected to score an impressive 6.03 runs on average, this matchup promises to be competitive.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's 87.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 0th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Chicago Cubs will record 6.58 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams playing today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cal Quantrill is projected to throw 78 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.282) provides evidence that Ezequiel Tovar has had positive variance on his side this year with his .320 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• Sam Hilliard has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 6.56 vs Colorado Rockies 6.03

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.