Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 8/14/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Alex Cobb - Guardians

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 14, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Guardians are enjoying a strong season with a record of 71-49, while the Cubs sit at 59-62, marking them as a middle-of-the-road team. The Guardians are fresh off a solid performance, and they will look to build on their momentum.

Cleveland's projected starter, Alex Cobb, has faced a challenging year, holding a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 7.71. Despite this, his advanced statistics suggest he has been unlucky, with a 4.37 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. Cobb projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, although he may struggle with hits and walks, averaging 5.7 hits and 1.3 walks allowed per game.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon will take the mound for Chicago. Taillon has had a better season, with an 8-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.50. However, his xFIP of 4.22 suggests that he may be due for some regression. He also projects to pitch about 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs. Both pitchers face unique challenges against their opponents' offenses.

Cleveland's offense ranks 15th in MLB, while the Cubs rank 17th overall. However, the Guardians hold a significant advantage in the bullpen, ranked 5th compared to the Cubs' 26th, which could be pivotal late in the game. The Guardians are projected to score 4.50 runs, while the Cubs are expected to tally 4.00 runs, suggesting a closely contested matchup. With the Guardians' strong showing this season and their edge in the bullpen, they should be favored to come out on top in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's 91.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.2-mph decline from last season's 93-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Michael Busch has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.8% seasonal rate to 21.7% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Because flyball hitters have a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Alex Cobb and his 54.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in today's outing facing 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+9.47 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 114 games (+9.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.16 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.69

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