Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 8/12/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 12, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field in the first game of their interleague series. The Guardians, currently holding a solid 69-49 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Cubs sit at 59-60, indicative of an average performance thus far. Both teams are looking to make a statement in this matchup, with both teams riding winning streaks going into this contest.

Cleveland's Ben Lively, projected to start, has had a mixed season. While he carries a respectable 3.59 ERA, his xFIP of 4.53 suggests he may have been fortunate this year and could face challenges moving forward. Lively's average projections for the day indicate he may struggle, particularly with allowing 5.1 hits on average, which could be detrimental against a Cubs lineup that, despite being ranked 18th in MLB, has shown flashes of offensive capability.

On the other side, Shota Imanaga of the Cubs has been a bright spot for Chicago, boasting a 3.06 ERA and a solid 9-2 record. His ability to limit earned runs and maintain a strong strikeout rate will be crucial as he faces a Guardians offense that ranks 15th in MLB. While both teams have average batting averages, the Guardians’ bullpen ranks 6th, offering them a significant advantage late in the game.

With the Guardians favored at -105 and the Cubs at -115, betting markets expect a closely contested game. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a matchup that could see both teams vying for runs. As both teams aim to gain momentum, the Guardians will look to their home field advantage and a strong performance from their bullpen to secure the win.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Shota Imanaga will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Over the last 14 days, Michael Busch has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.5% to 23.1%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 102 games (+7.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+21.10 Units / 211% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.38 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.14

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