Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 7/30/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Undecided - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on July 30, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, both teams find themselves in a National League Central matchup with plenty to prove. The Reds enter the game with a 51-55 record, while the Cubs hold a similar 51-57 mark, signifying below-average seasons for both squads. The Reds' have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this game given all of their trade deadline maneuvering, while the Cubs look to the reliable Justin Steele.

Left-handed pitcher Justin Steele has been a bright spot for the Cubs, boasting a Win/Loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.08. Ranked #27 among starting pitchers, Steele projects to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, adhering to his season averages. However, it's worth noting his 3.71 xFIP suggests some regression might be in store. Steele's peripherals, marked by 5.9 hits and 1.6 walks allowed per projected outing, also raise some concerns.

The Reds' offense, ranking 20th overall and struggling with a 27th place in team batting average, will rely heavily on the hot bat of Elly De La Cruz, who has been stellar over the last week with a .375 average, 6 hits, and 6 stolen bases. On the other side, Seiya Suzuki has been the Cubs' standout hitter recently, recording a .318 average, 7 hits, and 2 homers over his last 6 games.

Despite both teams' bullpen struggles, ranking 28th and 27th respectively, the Cubs come into the game as slight favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. Meanwhile, the Reds are underdogs at +120 with a 44% implied win probability. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

With the Cubs' stronger starting pitching and patient lineup, they hold a slight edge in this matchup, hoping to capitalize on the Reds' offensive inconsistencies. Expect a competitive contest as both teams aim to finish the season on a high note.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all SPs, Justin Steele's fastball velocity of 91.1 mph is in the 15th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ian Happ is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Jonathan India's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.6-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 83.2-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.88 vs Cincinnati Reds 5

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