Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 6/7/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park in a National League Central matchup. The Reds, with a season record of 30-33, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs hold a record of 31-32, indicating an average performance so far.

The Reds are projected to start left-handed pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has been ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lodolo boasts a Win/Loss record of 5-2 this season, with an impressive ERA of 3.11. He has started 8 games and is expected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, striking out 6.2 batters on average. However, Lodolo's projection suggests that he may allow 2.7 earned runs and 5.0 hits, as well as 1.8 walks on average, which are areas for improvement.

On the other side, the Cubs will likely start left-handed pitcher Justin Steele, who is ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Steele has started 7 games this season, with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.10. Interestingly, his 3.46 xERA (Expected ERA) is 0.64 points lower than his actual ERA, indicating potential for improved performance in the future. Steele's projections suggest an average performance, with an average of 5.5 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, 5.7 hits, and 1.8 walks. He is also expected to strike out 5.3 batters on average.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank 17th in MLB this season, while the Cubs rank 20th. However, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league, while the Cubs rank sixth. Both teams have an average ranking in team batting average and home runs.

The current Game Total for this matchup is 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a relatively high-scoring game. Both teams have an equal moneyline of -110, suggesting a close game according to betting markets.

Based on the projections and rankings, the Reds have a slight advantage in terms of starting pitching, while the Cubs have a slightly better bullpen. However, both teams have comparable offensive performances.

It should be an exciting game as the Reds aim to improve their record and the Cubs look to maintain their average season. The outcome will depend on how well the pitchers perform and if either team's offense can capitalize on their strengths.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Justin Steele has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 65.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Miguel Amaya's quickness has declined this year. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.55 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo was on point in his previous GS and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

T.J. Friedl has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .351 figure is quite a bit higher than his .282 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Cincinnati Reds batters as a group place 27th- in the game for power since the start of last season when judging by their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.98 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.49

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