Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Pick For 6/6/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On June 6, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. This National League Central matchup features the Reds, who are having a below-average season with a record of 29-33, as the home team, while the Cubs, with a record of 31-31, are the away team.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who has been performing above average this season. In his 12 starts, Greene has a win/loss record of 3-2 with an impressive ERA of 3.44. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Cubs will have right-handed pitcher Javier Assad on the mound. Assad has been an average pitcher this season, with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.27. Similarly to Greene, his 4.02 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and may not sustain his current level of performance.

The Reds offense ranks as the 22nd best in MLB this season, while the Cubs offense sits at the 19th spot. However, the Reds have excelled in stolen bases, ranking first in the league. The Cubs have a patient approach at the plate, ranking third in walks, which could pose a challenge for Greene, who struggles with control.

According to the projections, the Reds have a 53% win probability, while the Cubs have a 47% chance of winning. The implied win probabilities from the current moneyline odds also suggest a close game. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Cubs have an implied team total of 4.29 runs.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting clash between two division rivals. The Reds will rely on Hunter Greene's pitching and their strong stolen base game, while the Cubs will look to take advantage of Javier Assad's solid performances and their patient approach at the plate. With both teams having a chance to win, it will be a closely contested battle on the field.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's 2027-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 7th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nico Hoerner's 1.7% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Compared to league average, Hunter Greene has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 9.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Elly De La Cruz's speed has dropped off this year. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds makes them the #27 offense in the game since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 31 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.18 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.16

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