Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox Pick For 8/9/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs will face off in an interleague matchup on August 9, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently sitting at 28-89, are enduring a dreadful season, while the Cubs are slightly above .500 at 57-60, though they too have not been consistent. The stakes may not be high in the standings, but this crosstown rivalry always brings intensity.

In their most recent outings, the Cubs played well and got their second win in a row, while the White Sox are seeking any signs of life after a tumultuous stretch. The White Sox are projected to start Garrett Crochet, who has excelled this season, ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite his 6-8 record and a solid ERA of 3.19, Crochet's xFIP of 2.60 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could be poised for a strong performance. He’s averaging 5.0 innings pitched with 2.0 earned runs allowed, which could play a crucial role against the Cubs.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon is slated to take the mound for the Cubs. His 3.25 ERA looks solid on the surface, but his 4.20 xFIP indicates he may not be as effective as his numbers suggest. Taillon's struggles with allowing 5.5 hits and 1.1 walks per game could give the White Sox a glimmer of hope, although their offense ranks dead last in MLB power rankings.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs and both teams struggling with consistency, this matchup could swing either way. The White Sox, despite their low implied team total of 3.73 runs, might find a way to capitalize on Taillon's inconsistencies, making this a game worth watching for bettors.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Generating 17.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Jameson Taillon places him the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.9-mph average last season has fallen to 84.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 7 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Garrett Crochet will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Miguel Vargas is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 46 games (+3.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 95 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.53 vs Chicago White Sox 4.33

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