Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 4/17/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -185, D-Backs -1.5 160
• Money Line: Cubs 100, D-Backs -120
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 48%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 44.76%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 55.24%

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

The Diamondbacks have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 8-9. On the other hand, the Cubs have been performing well, boasting a record of 10-6 and having a great season.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, while the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks. Pfaadt has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-0. Although his ERA is 6.48, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Wicks, on the other hand, has started three games as well, with a win/loss record of 0-2. His ERA is 5.68, but his xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and should improve in future outings.

Both pitchers have their strengths and weaknesses. Pfaadt is a low-walk pitcher, but he is projected to allow a high number of hits and walks in this game. Wicks, on the other hand, is a high-strikeout pitcher, but he will face a Diamondbacks offense that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank 14th in MLB this season, with an average performance. They have shown strength in batting average and stolen bases, ranking 11th and 3rd respectively. The Cubs offense is slightly better, ranking 15th in MLB. They have excelled in batting average and stolen bases, ranking 9th and 6th respectively.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Diamondbacks rank 20th, while the Cubs rank 12th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Cubs may have a slight advantage in the later innings.

In terms of betting odds, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability. The Cubs have a moneyline of +100, with a 48% implied win probability. This indicates that the game is expected to be close.

Overall, this matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cubs is expected to be a closely contested game. The Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Cubs will aim to continue their strong season. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds on April 17th.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Due to his reverse platoon split, Jordan Wicks will hold the advantage facing 8 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Cody Bellinger who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brandon Pfaadt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's matchup, Cody Bellinger is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 2472.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 90th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Jordan Wicks.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Gabriel Moreno (the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 102 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Randal Grichuk has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Cubs vs D-Backs Prediction: Cubs 4.76 - D-Backs 5.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.