Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Boston Red Sox travel to Nationals Park on Friday, July 4, 2025, for the first of many games in a loaded holiday of baseball. Boston sends Lucas Giolito to the mound against Washington’s Mike Soroka. Here, I break down this holiday matinee and give you my Red Sox vs Nationals prediction for the day.

Our Red Sox vs Nationals Pick

Pick: Red Sox moneyline (-115)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals
• Date & Time: Friday, July 4, 2025, first pitch at 11:05 a.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs Mike Soroka (WSH)
• Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington D.C.
• Broadcast: MLB Network, NESN, MASN

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Giolito has posted a 3.99 ERA over 58.2 innings, averaging 7.8 K/9. His last outing was a seven-inning effort against Toronto where he allowed no earned runs. He’s delivered quality starts in four of his past five and looks to stay consistent here.
• Soroka has a 4.70 ERA and 9.7 K/9 across 59.1 innings, with a WHIP of 1.03. He’s produced quality starts in four of his last five trips to the hill but remains susceptible to hard contact.

Bullpen Usage

I give Boston a huge advantage in the battle of the bullpens in this game. The Sox have a bullpen ERA of 3.61, while the Nationals have the league’s worst bullpen ERA at 5.89. If this game is close late, that could come into play and help the Sox.

Recent Team Streaks

• Boston is 3-2 in its last five. In that span, they ahve scored into double-digits in two separate games.
• Washington is 3-1 in its last four, including taking 2 of 3 from the Tigers. They remain under .500 for the season but their performance against the best team in the American League was encouraging.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Boston is 26-27 as a moneyline favorite.
• Boston is 18-25 on the road this season, Washington is 18-25 at home.
• Washington is 33-39 as underdogs, with a nearly 46% win rate.
• On July 4 at home, the Nationals have won 10 of the last 18.

Red Sox vs Nationals Model Projection

Score Projection: Boston 5 – Washington 4

Win Probability: 55% Boston, 45% Washington

Final Thoughts

Boston’s lineup holds a slight edge in consistency and firepower, while I think Washington’s bullpen remains a weakness that can be exploited. Backing Boston at –115 offers value. I see this game being close late and the Red Sox breaking it open against the struggling Nationals bullpen, in what should be an exciting start to a July 4th filled with action on the diamond.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.