Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As we head into September 25, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been struggling this season with a 73-85 record, will host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox, holding onto an average 80-78 record, come into this matchup as they aim to finish their season on a strong note. This American League East showdown marks the third game in their series, with both teams looking to gain an edge in their head-to-head encounters.

Toronto is set to send Kevin Gausman to the mound, a reliable right-hander ranked as the 82nd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite being solid on paper with a 13-11 record and a 3.91 ERA, his peripheral stats hint at some fortune this season. Gausman averages 6.1 innings per outing, giving up 2.6 earned runs while striking out 6.9, which could serve well against Boston's potent lineup.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Richard Fitts, a righty who has been lucky with a 0.00 ERA across just three starts. However, his projections for allowing 2.8 earned runs in 4.8 innings indicate vulnerability, especially against a Blue Jays lineup that doesn’t strike out much. In fact, Fitts' low strikeout rate (11.1 K%) could be exploited by Toronto's offense.

The Blue Jays' offensive rankings have been middling, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been heating up recently, boasting an impressive .367 average with two home runs and a 1.006 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Triston Casas stands out for Boston, posting a 1.072 OPS with three homers in the same span.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Blue Jays with a 59% win probability, suggesting that the betting odds might undervalue their chances. Toronto's bullpen, ranked 26th, could be a concern, but with the game total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup promises to be an intriguing blend of pitching strategies and offensive firepower.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Romy Gonzalez, Triston Casas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 9.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nathan Lukes will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+15.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 away games (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.21 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.84

Get daily MLB picks here.