Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/23/2024

• Date: September 23, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Boston Red Sox in an American League East matchup at Rogers Centre on September 23, 2024. This first game of the series sees the Blue Jays, who have had a below-average season with a record of 73-83, hosting the Red Sox, who sit at a balanced 78-78, showcasing average performance this year. With both teams having little at stake in terms of postseason aspirations, this game will be more about pride and ending the season on a high note.

On the mound, Toronto will deploy Chris Bassitt, the 74th-ranked starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a 4.16 ERA over 30 starts. While his win-loss record of 10-13 isn't stellar, his projections show promise. He is expected to deliver 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 6.5 batters on average, although his tendency to allow hits and walks could be a challenge.

Boston counters with Tanner Houck, ranked 33rd among starting pitchers, who has an impressive 3.21 ERA over 29 starts. Despite a slightly lower strikeout projection of 4.9, Houck's groundball prowess plays well against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 25th in home runs. However, his xERA of 4.12 suggests he's pitched better than expected this season, hinting at potential regression.

The Red Sox's offense, ranked 8th, is a stark contrast to Toronto's average 15th-ranked lineup. Boston's lineup boasts power, ranking 7th in home runs, while the Blue Jays struggle in that category. Both bullpens could play a pivotal role, with the Red Sox holding a slight edge as the 14th-ranked bullpen compared to Toronto's 24th.

Both betting markets and projections give the Blue Jays a slim edge with a 52% win probability, making this contest a closely fought affair. With the projected run totals low, the matchup's outcome could hinge on which starter best contains the opposing lineup's strengths.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (67.9% compared to 60.5% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Romy Gonzalez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 offense in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nathan Lukes may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 74 away games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Joey Loperfido has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.03 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.92

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