The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night. Toronto leads the American League East at 90-66, while Boston is 85-71 and chasing a Wild Card berth. This is a huge game for both teams and before it begins, you can continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction from Rogers Centre.
Our Red Sox vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 7:07 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays) vs Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: SNET (Toronto) and NESN (Boston)
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Kevin Gausman enters with a 10-10 record and a 3.38 ERA, striking out 177 batters this season. He has performed well at home and he will try to deliver his team a huge win at home in a big spot here. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA. He has solid overall numbers, but he struggled in his most recent start against the lowly Athletics.
- Key Players: George Springer remains a dangerous bat in Toronto’s lineup, leading the team with 30 home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr also continues to provide power in the Toronto lineup, which is especially important with Bo Bichette out injured. Trevor Story is among Boston’s top bats, driving in 95 runs. Also keep an eye on Wilyer Abreu, returning from the injured list, who could provide a spark.
- Recent team streaks: Toronto ended a long losing streak in their last game with a win over the Kansas City Royals. Boston won two out of three games against the Tampa Bay Rays in their last series. They won the first two games of that series and lost their third game against Tampa before this series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Kevin Gausman | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Trevor Story | Total Bases | Over 1.5 TB |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto holds a 7-3 lead in their season series against the Red Sox this year.
- Toronto has won four of the last five games between these teams.
- Boston is 39-39 on the road for the season.
- Toronto is 50-25 in their home games for the 2025 season.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Model Projection
- Score Projection: Blue Jays 4 – Red Sox 5
- Win Probability: Blue Jays 46%, Red Sox 54%
Final Thoughts
Both of these teams have to win games this week to protect their spots in the postseason. I think it will be the Red Sox to get a win in this matchup. Giolito has been the more consistent performer on the mound for the most part and he should help his team to get a huge win that will shake things up in both the AL East and the AL Wild Card chase.
