Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/2/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Jose Urena - Rangers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers will host the Boston Red Sox in the first game of a crucial series on August 2, 2024, at Globe Life Field. With the Rangers sitting at 52-57, they are having a below-average season, while the Red Sox boast a 57-50 record, placing them above average in the standings. The Rangers are not in contention for their division, and they will need to find a way to turn their fortunes around if they hope to remain relevant in the Wild Card race.

Both teams come off contrasting performances in their last games. The Rangers suffered a lopsided 10-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 31, while the Red Sox edged out the Seattle Mariners with a narrow 3-2 victory. This stark difference in momentum could play a significant role in how this matchup unfolds.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Jose Urena, who has struggled this season despite a decent ERA of 3.07. He ranks as the 306th best starting pitcher in MLB, a clear indication of his challenges. Urena's low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in the league in strikeouts, potentially giving him a slight edge.

Kutter Crawford will take the hill for the Red Sox. Despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings against the New York Yankees, Crawford has shown promise this season with a solid ERA of 3.57 and a ranking of 66th among starting pitchers.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 4th in MLB, showcasing their strength with a batting average of .295. Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense ranks 23rd, struggling to find consistency. THE BAT X projects the Rangers to score an average of 4.62 runs in this game, while the Red Sox are projected for 4.72 runs, hinting at a competitive contest. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a closely contested affair.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Connor Wong is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jarren Duran hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Urena in this matchup, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Corey Seager has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 88 games (+9.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 away games (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 40% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.72 vs Texas Rangers 4.62

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