Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 8/3/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 3, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League matchup, especially after the Red Sox triumphed over the Rangers 11-6 in their last game. The Rangers currently sit at 52-58, well below average this season, while the Red Sox are enjoying a strong campaign at 58-50, ranking 4th in the league for offensive performance.

Cody Bradford is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, boasting a perfect 3-0 record this year and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for regression, as his 4.26 xFIP indicates he has benefited from some luck. Bradford’s projected performance today—2.3 innings pitched with 1.1 earned runs—doesn't inspire confidence, especially given that he has only pitched a handful of games this season.

On the opposite side, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox brings a solid 8-7 record and an exceptional ERA of 2.79 into this matchup. While Houck's projections suggest he may allow 2.7 earned runs, he has consistently been a reliable presence on the mound, ranking 38th among MLB starters.

Despite the Rangers' struggles this season, their bullpen ranks 6th overall, which could help mitigate offensive challenges. Additionally, Marcus Semien has been a standout performer, leading the team in runs and RBIs. However, the Red Sox have the advantage with hitters like Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, who are both producing at high levels.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests the Rangers might outperform expectations today, projecting them to score 4.34 runs, while the Red Sox are estimated to tally only 3.95 runs. Given this context, it could be worth considering a bet on the Rangers to secure an upset victory, especially with the close moneyline odds.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck wasn't on when it came to striking batters out in his previous outing and compiled 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Tyler O'Neill has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's game, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Tanner Houck has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.06 vs Texas Rangers 4.34

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.