Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On September 17, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field in the first game of a crucial series. Both teams are sitting at a .500 record, with the Rays at 73-77 and the Red Sox at 75-75, reflecting an average season. Neither team is in contention for a playoff spot, making each game vital for building momentum.

Tampa Bay will send Shane Baz to the mound, who has a 2-3 record and a solid 3.28 ERA this season. However, advanced projections suggest Baz may have been a bit fortunate this year, as his 4.61 xFIP indicates potential struggles ahead. He projects to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. This could be a challenge against a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in MLB and boasts a potent batting average of .265, spearheaded by Connor Wong, who has been swinging the bat well lately.

On the other hand, Boston's Nick Pivetta, sporting a 5-10 record and a 4.24 ERA, has been more consistent, and projections indicate he could outperform his average. Pivetta's ability to strike out batters at a 29.5% rate could give him an edge against a Rays lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts this season. However, both pitchers are facing offenses that might struggle with power, as Tampa Bay ranks 28th in home runs.

With a Game Total of just 7.5 runs, the matchup leans towards pitchers. The betting markets reflect this with both teams having moneylines set at -110, indicating a closely contested game. However, given the overall offensive capabilities of the Red Sox, they may hold the advantage in this matchup, especially if Pivetta can maintain his strikeout prowess.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Over his previous 3 GS, Nick Pivetta has suffered a sizeable decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2319 rpm over the whole season to 2246 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Compared to the average pitcher, Shane Baz has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -7.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Ben Rortvedt has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 77.1-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 122 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 52 away games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+7.25 Units / 11% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.34 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.97

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