Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/22/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 22, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. This American League East matchup promises an exciting contest between two teams with similar records this season. The Rays have a 25-25 record, while the Red Sox are just one game ahead at 25-24. Both teams are having average seasons so far, aiming to improve their standings.

Taking the mound for the Rays is right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot. The projections rank Pepiot as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB, out of approximately 350 pitchers. With a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.68, Pepiot has been performing well this season. However, his 2.93 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

Opposing Pepiot will be the Red Sox's right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello. Bello is ranked as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.96, Bello has been above average this season. However, his 5.13 FIP indicates that he may have been lucky, and his performance could decline in the future.

The betting markets expect a close game, with the Rays favored at -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. The Red Sox are the underdogs at +105, with a 47% implied win probability. Based on the current odds, the Rays have an average implied team total of 3.88 runs, while the Red Sox have a slightly lower implied team total of 3.62 runs.

With Brayan Bello's high groundball rate (49 GB%) and the Rays' powerful offense (173 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB), Bello may have an advantage if he can keep the ball on the ground and limit the Rays' ability to capitalize on their away-run power.

The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring matchup. As the Rays have the higher projected win probability, they might be the team to watch for a potential betting opportunity.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Tropicana Field — the #8 HR venue in MLB — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Wilyer Abreu tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ryan Pepiot in the 91st percentile among all SPs in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Richie Palacios is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.78 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.14

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.