Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/16/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox on April 16, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams are looking to turn around below-average starts to the season. The Rays are currently 8-9, while the Red Sox sit at 9-10. In their previous matchup, the Rays fell against the Red Sox, who put together a strong game offensively.

On the mound, Tampa Bay is projected to start Zack Littell, who has had a rough start to the season with an 0-3 record and a troubling 6.88 ERA. However, advanced metrics indicate he may be due for positive regression, as his 3.73 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Littell's low strikeout rate could work in his favor against a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup, which ranks 1st in MLB in strikeouts.

Boston counters with Sean Newcomb, who comes in with an 0-2 record and a 4.97 ERA. Newcomb, regarded as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to Power Rankings, may struggle against the Rays' offensive prowess, which ranks 6th overall this season. The Rays' lineup has been particularly impressive, sitting 3rd in team batting average and 4th in stolen bases.

The projections favor the Rays, who have an implied team total of 4.81 runs. Given the current state of both pitching staffs and the offensive capabilities of Tampa Bay, the Rays might just capitalize on their strengths and secure another win in this vital matchup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball hitters, Sean Newcomb and his 43% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today's outing matching up with 3 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilyer Abreu tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Littell.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Boston Red Sox with a 26.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 8.3% from last year to this one (22.1% to 13.8%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jose Caballero is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly rank in the cellar of baseball since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) when assessing their 88-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.55 Units / 40% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.41, Tampa Bay Rays 4.21

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Newcomb - Red Sox
  • Zack Littell - Rays

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