Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/14/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 14, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Rays sitting at 7-8 and the Red Sox at 8-9. While both teams are underperforming relative to expectations, they are looking to find some momentum as they kick off their series today.

In their last outing, the Rays' standout pitcher Shane Baz delivered an impressive performance, allowing just one run over 6 innings, showcasing his ability to dominate with a 1.38 ERA this season. Baz's strong strikeout rate of 31.4% positions him well against a Red Sox offense that leads the league in strikeouts. This matchup may tilt in the Rays' favor, as Baz's high strikeout capability can exploit the Red Sox's tendency to whiff.

Opposing him is Tanner Houck for Boston, who has struggled with a 4.41 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 14.9%. Although his projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.9 innings and give up 2.4 earned runs, his inconsistency could be a liability against a Rays offense ranked 10th in overall talent, with a strong batting average of .270 this season.

The projections favor Tampa Bay, suggesting they might have the upper hand with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs. This game is pivotal for both clubs as they look to gain traction in the American League East. With each team eager to turn their season around, fans can expect a competitive atmosphere as the Rays and Red Sox duel on the diamond.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Alex Bregman are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox grades them out as the #5 team in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Shane Baz (36% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kameron Misner has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Taylor Walls has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.51, Tampa Bay Rays 3.91

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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