Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Boston Red Sox at T-Mobile Park in what is the second game of their series. The Mariners are currently holding a record of 36-35, while the Red Sox sit slightly better at 38-36. Both teams are having average seasons, but the Mariners will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage.

As the Mariners try to snap the six-game winning streak of the Red Sox, they will send Bryan Woo to the mound. Woo has been impressive this season, ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, and his ERA stands at a solid 3.39. He projects to pitch an average of 6.2 innings today, allowing just 2.2 earned runs. However, his projections also indicate he may allow 5.1 hits and 0.9 walks, which could be a concern.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Walker Buehler, who has struggled this season, evidenced by his 5.01 ERA. While Buehler’s xFIP suggests he may be due for some positive regression, his projections show he’s likely to pitch only 5.5 innings today, with an average of 2.7 earned runs allowed. His ability to strike out batters is below average, which could be a disadvantage against a Mariners offense that ranks 11th overall in MLB.

The Mariners’ offense has been particularly strong in terms of power, ranking 8th in home runs this season. With a current moneyline of -175, they are favored to win, reflecting their stronger overall performance and home-field advantage. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight matchup. With the Mariners looking to solidify their standing and the Red Sox trying to find their footing, this game promises to be competitive.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler's fastball velocity has dropped 1.8 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last season (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.307 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .325 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Rowdy Tellez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 96.6-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Abraham Toro has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 69% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.52, Seattle Mariners 4.27

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners

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