Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 6/16/2025

The Seattle Mariners will host the Boston Red Sox on June 16, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup at T-Mobile Park. Both teams have been treading water this season, with the Mariners sitting at 36-34 and the Red Sox slightly ahead at 37-36. However, recent performances suggest the Mariners could have the edge, especially with Logan Gilbert on the mound, who has been solid this year with a 2.37 ERA across 6 starts.

Logan Gilbert, ranked as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has showcased a high strikeout ability with a 37.6% strikeout rate this season. Facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, Gilbert's strengths could exploit Boston's weaknesses. In his latest outing, he delivered a notable performance, which could bolster the Mariners' confidence heading into this game.

On the other hand, Boston will counter with Lucas Giolito, who has struggled this season, highlighted by a 5.45 ERA. Although Giolito has a slightly better than average strikeout rate, his projections suggest trouble, with high expected earned runs and walks allowed. The Mariners' offense, ranking 11th overall and excelling in home runs, could capitalize on Giolito’s inconsistency.

With the Mariners favored at -185, betting trends indicate a strong likelihood of a win given Gilbert's excellent form compared to Giolito's struggles. The projections suggest a high team total of 4.28 runs for Seattle, contrasting sharply with Boston's low projection of 3.22 runs. As these teams face off for the first game of their series, the Mariners will be looking to build momentum against a struggling Red Sox squad.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Lucas Giolito is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bats such as Kristian Campbell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Gilbert who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.308 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .326 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Given the 2.89 gap between Logan Gilbert's 13.05 K/9 and his 10.16 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see worse results in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jorge Polanco has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.35, Seattle Mariners 4.14

• Date: June 16, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

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