Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 6/22/2025

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on June 22, 2025, all eyes will be on ace Robbie Ray, who is having a standout season with an impressive 8-2 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.68. The Giants, currently holding a 43-34 record, are looking to build on their recent 3-2 victory over Boston. This Interleague matchup marks the third game in this series, amplifying its significance as both teams battle to position themselves better in the standings.

Ray's left-handed prowess will be put to the test against a Red Sox lineup that has been solid but showcases their own struggles. Boston sits at 40-38 and has endured an average season by their standards. Lucas Giolito, projected to start for the Red Sox, has a 3-1 record with a respectable ERA of 4.73. However, he will be challenged by a Giants offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, but just added Rafael Devers from Boston.

The fact that the Giants have the 1st rated bullpen in MLB could play a crucial role in today's game, as the projections suggest a favorable matchup for San Francisco. The Giants have the edge in starting pitching and bullpen strength, along with their recent form. While the Game Total for this matchup sits at a low 7.5 runs, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline of -160, implying they should score around 4.13 runs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's outlook is underwhelming, with projections estimating only about 3.37 runs.

In this encounter, it will be intriguing to see if Ray can exploit the Red Sox’s tendency to strike out, as they rank 3rd in MLB in that category, aligning with Ray's high strikeout percentage of 27.5 K%. Expect a competitive game as both teams grasp for momentum in the series.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Lucas Giolito is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Boston Red Sox have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

There has been a decrease in Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity this year, from 87.4 mph last year to 83.5 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.79, San Francisco Giants 4.34

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

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