Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 6/20/2025

As the San Francisco Giants host the Boston Red Sox at Oracle Park on June 20, 2025, both teams are fighting for momentum in the competitive landscape of MLB. The Giants currently hold a record of 42-33 and are performing well this season, while the Red Sox stand at 39-37, having had an average campaign thus far. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding another layer of intrigue.

In this game, the Giants will look for a solid outing from Hayden Birdsong, who has been a reliable starter despite his ranking as the 175th best pitcher in the league according to advanced Power Rankings. Birdsong’s ERA sits at an impressive 2.79, yet the projections suggest he might experience some regression, as his xFIP indicates he’s been a tad lucky. Facing him will be Hunter Dobbins, whose own performance has been a mixed bag. With a 3.74 ERA, he’s been decent but lacks the consistency and strikeout ability that could pose a challenge to the Giants' lineup.

Offensively, the Giants have struggled this season, ranking 21st overall and 24th in team batting average, with their biggest strength being their ability to draw walks. However, they face a tough test against Dobbins, who has shown good control with a low walk rate of 4.8%. Meanwhile, the Red Sox boast a 7th overall offense, making their lineup a significant threat in this matchup, especially with their power ranking 8th in home runs.

Given the disparity in offensive capabilities and the closeness of the moneyline, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking at the Giants to leverage their home-field advantage against a Red Sox team that has had their share of ups and downs. With a low game total of 7.5 runs expected, fans can anticipate a tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all starters, Hunter Dobbins's fastball velocity of 95 mph is in the 85th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Abraham Toro is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.310 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler Fitzgerald's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph average last season has lowered to 83.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.07, San Francisco Giants 4.34

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

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