Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 8/10/2025
The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres are set to conclude their three-game series at Petco Park on Sunday. San Diego got a win in 10 innings over the Red Sox on Saturday to even this three-game set at a game apiece. San Diego is a slight favorite going into the rubber match on their home field. Here, I take a closer look at this interleague matchup and give you my Red Sox vs Padres prediction.
Red Sox vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Red Sox to win
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 10, 2025, 4:10 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (BOS) vs Dylan Cease (SD)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: NESN, Padres Television Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Brayan Bello is 8-5 with a 3.03 ERA and has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox this season. Bello has better numbers than his counterpart on the mound this season but doesn’t have the same name recognition. San Diego’s Dylan Cease is 4-10 with a 4.60 ERA in 2025. He has struggled to find consistency despite his high strikeout total for the year.
Key Players
The Red Sox’s offense has been potent. Wilyer Abreu is leading the team in home runs and Trevor Story is driving in a significant number of runs. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the most important contributors to the offense of the Padres.
Recent Team Streaks
- Boston has lost two of its last three games after winning seven in a row before that.
- The Padres have won three of their last four games going into Sunday’s series finale with Boston.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Brayan Bello | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Over 0.5 Steals |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between Boston and San Diego is tied 1-1.
- The over has hit in both games of this series so far.
- Boston is 26-31 on the road during the 2025 season.
- San Diego is 37-20 in their home games this year.
Red Sox vs Padres Model Projection
- Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Padres 4
- Win Probability: Red Sox 55%, Padres 45%
Final Thoughts
If you took away the names of the starting pitchers taking part in today’s game, I think Brayan Bello would be considered the better pitcher of the two right now. I expect Bello to pitch well in this game and for him to have no problem going toe-to-toe with Cease. I’ll take the Red Sox to win this game on the road and to lock up another series win.
