Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Pick – 8/8/2025
We get a very interesting interleague matchup on Friday night as the Boston Red Sox visit the San Diego Padres in the first game of a three-game series. Both of these teams are playing well and are in second place in their respective divisions coming into this contest. Here, you will find my breakdown of this key contest in Major League Baseball, including my Red Sox vs Padres prediction for tonight.
Our Red Sox vs Padres Pick
- Pick: San Diego Padres –1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
- Bonus Bets For Friday’s Baseball: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Click the Claim Bonus button below to start!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Friday, August 8, 2025, 9:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Boston – Walker Buehler (6‑6, 5.74 ERA)
- San Diego – Nick Pivetta (11‑3, 2.73 ERA)
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: SDPA and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Walker Buehler has struggled this season for the Red Sox. He is winless in his last four starts and has given up three earned runs in three of those outings. San Diego’s Nick Pivetta continues to excel with elite performance metrics for the year. Pivetta is facing his former team in this game and it will be interesting to see how he performs with that in mind.
Key Players
- Red Sox hitters like Trevor Story and Wilyer Abreu must find success against a dominant pitcher in Pivetta. Abreu leads the Red Sox in home runs and Story leads them in RBI.
- Manny Machado leads San Diego’s offense with the ability to hit for both power and average.
Recent team streaks
- Red Sox are 7‑1 straight up in their last 8 games. They had a seven-game winning streak snapped by the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday.
- The Padres have won three of their last four games and are now just two games back of the LA Dodgers at the top of the NL West.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Player | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Home runs | Manny Machado | Over 0.5 |
| Strikeouts | Nick Pivetta | Over 6.5 |
| Total bases | Trevor Story | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting of the season between the Red Sox and Padres.
- San Diego is an impressive 36-19 at home on the year.
- Boston is 25-30 on the road and has done most of their damage at Fenway Park in 2025.
- The Padres have the number one bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.99.
Red Sox vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston 3 – San Diego 5
Win Probability: Boston 35%, San Diego 65%
Final Thoughts
The Padres have the advantage when it comes to pitching both at the start of this game and at the end of it. Pivetta gives San Diego a huge edge over Walker Buehler on the mound to start this game. I expect Pivetta to help San Diego grab the lead before the Padres bullpen gets involved to shut things down. My best bet for this game is for San Diego to cover the runline at home.
