Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/20/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
• Run Line: Red Sox 1.5 -195, Pirates -1.5 165
• Money Line: Red Sox 100, Pirates -120
• Total (Over/Under):8 -105

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 48%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 52%

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

On April 20, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team for this interleague matchup. Both teams have had a decent start to the season, with the Pirates holding an 11-9 record and the Red Sox close behind at 11-10.

The Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller, who has been performing below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Keller has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.50. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Keller is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford has been performing well this season, ranking as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. In his four starts, Crawford has an impressive ERA of 0.42. However, his 3.74 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings. Crawford is projected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters.

In terms of offense, the Pirates rank 14th in MLB, while the Red Sox rank 23rd. However, the Red Sox have the third-best team batting average in the league, showcasing their hitting prowess. The Pirates' best hitter over the last seven games has been Alika Williams, while the Red Sox have seen strong performances from Connor Wong during that same period.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets expect a close game. The Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability, while the Red Sox have a moneyline of +100 and a 48% implied win probability.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X provides valuable insights into team performance. The Pirates' bullpen ranks 7th best in MLB, while the Red Sox's bullpen ranks 16th.

Both teams will be looking to secure a victory in this second game of the series. With the Pirates having a slight edge in projected win probability, it promises to be an exciting matchup at PNC Park.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Rob Refsnyder has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup considerably missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average starter, Mitch Keller has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an additional 6.3 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction: Red Sox 3.77 - Pirates 4.08

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