Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 4/19/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Quinn Priester - Pirates
• Run Line: Red Sox 1.5 -205, Pirates -1.5 175
• Money Line: Red Sox -110, Pirates -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 50%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 46.98%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 53.02%

Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be hosting the Boston Red Sox at PNC Park. The game is scheduled to be played on April 19, 2024. The Pirates, who have been having a great season with an 11-8 record, will look to continue their success against the Red Sox, who have had an average season with a 10-10 record.

The Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester, who has shown promise but is ranked as the #167 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Red Sox are expected to start right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello, who is considered above average and ranked as the #72 best starting pitcher in MLB.

In their last game, the Pirates suffered a tough 9-1 loss against the Mets. Despite this setback, the Pirates' offense has been performing well this season, ranking as the 14th best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks low at #26. Bryan Reynolds has been their best hitter this season, contributing 13 RBIs and 2 stolen bases with a batting average of .260.

The Red Sox also faced defeat in their previous game, losing 5-4 against the Guardians. Their offense, however, has been strong, ranking as the 23rd best in MLB. Jarren Duran has been their standout hitter, with 12 runs, 7 stolen bases, and an impressive batting average of .301.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs for this game. THE BAT X projects the Pirates to score 4.19 runs on average, while the Red Sox are projected to score 4.17 runs.

With THE BAT X giving the Pirates a 53% win probability and the Red Sox a 47% win probability, this game is expected to be a close one according to the projections. The Pirates are currently listed at -110 moneyline odds, while the Red Sox also have -110 odds, indicating that the betting markets anticipate a closely contested matchup.

As the Pirates look to bounce back from their previous loss, they will rely on their strong offense and solid bullpen to secure a victory. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will aim to capitalize on their impressive batting average and the pitching prowess of Brayan Bello.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tallying 16.7 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Brayan Bello falls in the 75th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme groundball hitters like Wilyer Abreu are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today’s version of the Red Sox projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .301 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Boston Red Sox have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Quinn Priester in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction: Red Sox 4.18 - Pirates 4.2

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