Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/6/2024

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are set to clash on July 6, 2024, at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an important matchup in the tightly contested American League East. The Yankees, with a 54-36 record, are having a great season and are keen on maintaining their edge over the Red Sox, who are also performing well with a 48-39 record.

For this game, the Yankees will send right-hander Gerrit Cole to the mound. Despite his current ERA of 6.23, Cole's 5.65 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and may rebound. He's projected to strike out 6.8 batters on average today, which aligns well against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts this season. This could give Cole an advantage.

Opposing him will be Josh Winckowski for the Red Sox. The right-hander has an impressive ERA of 2.80, although his 3.99 xFIP indicates he's benefited from some luck. Winckowski's high groundball rate (52 GB%) might neutralize the Yankees' potent power, as they rank 2nd in team home runs but struggle with hitting groundballs. However, Winckowski's projected 4.5 innings and 3.0 strikeouts are not promising.

Offensively, the Yankees rank as the 3rd best overall and have an implied team total of 5.09 runs for this game. Their batting average ranks 10th, and they are 28th in stolen bases, showing a clear emphasis on power, which could be mitigated by Winckowski’s groundball tendency. Conversely, the Red Sox offense is 7th best overall, 7th in batting average, and 6th in stolen bases, indicating a balanced approach that combines power and speed.

The Yankees have the edge in this matchup, bolstered by a better overall record and a higher-ranking offense. The game total is high at 9.0 runs, suggesting a potential slugfest. With the Yankees as a -175 favorite and an implied win probability of 62%, they are expected to come out on top in this critical division showdown.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Josh Winckowski must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 64.3% of the time, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Gerrit Cole's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (94.9 mph) below where it was last season (96 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

From last season to this one, Aaron Judge's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 101.9 mph to 99.9 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Trent Grisham hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 away games (+13.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.20 Units / 86% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.33 vs New York Yankees 5.38

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