Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/5/2024

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are set to clash on July 5, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, who currently boast a strong 54-35 record, are having a great season and sit comfortably in the playoff race. The Red Sox, with a 47-39 record, are also performing well above average, making this a significant game for both teams as they jockey for postseason positioning.

The Yankees will send left-hander Nestor Cortes to the mound. Cortes, ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a solid season with a 3.51 ERA over 18 starts. However, his 4-7 win/loss record suggests he hasn't always received ample run support. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests Cortes will pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters, indicating a potentially strong performance.

Opposing him will be Tanner Houck, the Red Sox's right-hander, who has impressed with a 2.67 ERA over 17 starts and ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his excellent ERA, his 3.68 xERA hints at some luck, suggesting he might regress. THE BAT X projects Houck to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. Notably, Houck is a high-groundball pitcher (54% GB rate) facing a powerful Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs. This groundball tendency could neutralize some of New York's power.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 3rd in MLB, with their prowess in hitting home runs being a key factor. However, their team batting average ranks 9th, and they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 28th. In contrast, the Red Sox's offense ranks 5th, with a strong 6th place ranking in team batting average and 6th in stolen bases, but only 11th in home runs.

With the Yankees favored at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and potent offense. Boston, though an underdog at +120 with a 44% implied win probability, can't be underestimated, especially with Houck's strong season. Both teams have key hitters in form, with Austin Wells leading the Yankees over the last week and Rafael Devers shining for the Red Sox. This opening game of the series should be a thrilling contest between two historic rivals.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last GS, Tanner Houck conceded a colossal 7 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme groundball bats like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Boston Red Sox hitters as a unit rank 8th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 8.6% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Anthony Volpe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+15.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.12 vs New York Yankees 4.84

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.