Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/7/2025

The New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox on June 7, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. The Yankees currently sit at 39-23, showcasing a strong season, while the Red Sox are struggling with a record of 30-35. In their last meeting, the Yankees edged out the Red Sox, adding pressure as they face off again.

Ryan Yarbrough is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, and while his 3-0 record with a solid 2.83 ERA indicates effectiveness, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, given his xFIP of 3.64. Yarbrough's average projections for the game include 5.3 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed, but he has struggled with walks, projected to allow 1.2 on average, which could be detrimental against a potent Red Sox lineup.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet is set to start for the Red Sox. With a record of 5-4 and an impressive 1.98 ERA, Crochet ranks as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His strikeout capability is notable, with an average projection of 7.4 strikeouts for this outing. However, like Yarbrough, Crochet also faces challenges, projected to allow 2.0 walks and 4.8 hits on average.

With both teams’ bullpens also ranking highly—4th for the Yankees and 5th for the Red Sox—this matchup should be tightly contested. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting a closely fought battle ahead, with both teams projected to score around 4 runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Trevor Story has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 102.4-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Boston Red Sox have 7 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Yarbrough today, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

DJ LeMahieu is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 20 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.55, New York Yankees 3.91

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees

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