Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction – 6/6/2025

On June 6, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season with a record of 38-23, while the Red Sox sit at 30-34, struggling to keep pace. In their last game, the Yankees showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively and continuing their push for a playoff spot.

The Yankees will send Will Warren to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season with a 3-3 record and a high ERA of 5.19. However, Warren's advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, with a much lower xFIP of 3.08, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters. Notably, he faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage.

Opposing Warren will be Walker Buehler, also a right-handed pitcher, who has started 9 games this season with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.44. Buehler's projections are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 3.2 earned runs and striking out just 4.3 batters. His struggles this year make him a target for the Yankees' potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB, including a 4th place ranking in team batting average.

With the Yankees favored at -175 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.07 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their offensive strengths against Buehler. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring affair may be on the horizon. As the Yankees strive to maintain their momentum, this matchup could be pivotal in solidifying their position in the standings.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler has used his four-seam fastball 5.1% less often this year (23.9%) than he did last season (29%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Today, Trevor Story is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Will Warren's 2537-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Austin Wells profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.87 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.35, New York Yankees 5.16

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Will Warren - Yankees

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