Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Pick – 8/21/2025
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will renew their rivalry at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night. These teams occupy the top two American League Wild Card spots and will look to set the tone in this four-game series against one another. Before the action begins in the Bronx, continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Yankees prediction for tonight.
Our Red Sox vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 7:15 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito vs Luis Gil
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Lucas Giolito has posted an impressive 8-2 record with a 3.63 ERA over 106.2 innings this season. He has allowed just one earned run in three of his last four starts. He will look to continue his strong run on the mound in the Bronx. Luis Gil has a 5.14 ERA through 14 innings since returning from injury. But he’s looked good in his last couple of starts. Gil has allowed three earned runs over 10.2 innings of work in his last two games and will aim to build on that here.
Key Players
- Yankees: Aaron Judge leads a potent offense that ranks third in MLB with 5.2 runs per game and a league-leading 204 homers.
- Red Sox: Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, and Jarren Duran anchor an offense that’s fourth in the league in runs.
Recent Team Streaks
- Boston has lost three games in a row coming into this huge matchup in New York.
- The Yankees enter this series on a five-game winning streak.
Best Player Props
Player | Prop |
---|---|
Aaron Judge | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Lucas Giolito | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Alex Bregman | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox lead the season series against the Yankees 5-1.
- Boston has won five straight games against the Yankees after dropping the first game against them this year.
- Three straight games between these teams have gone under their respective totals.
Red Sox vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 5 – Red Sox 4
Win Probability: Yankees 61%, Red Sox 39%
Final Thoughts
Luis Gil is better than his numbers look right now. He had a shaky first start after rejoining the Yankees rotation but has been solid since then. I will back Gil and the Yankees to win this game at home and to extend their current winning streak to six games. New York will move a half-game closer to the Toronto Blue Jays in the race for the AL East title.