Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Pick – 6/8/2025

On June 8, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Boston Red Sox in a pivotal American League East matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are enjoying a strong season with a record of 39-24, while the Red Sox sit at 31-35, struggling to find consistency. This game marks the third in the series, and the Red Sox will be looking to build on their recent success after taking the previous game.

Carlos Rodon is slated to take the mound for the Yankees, bringing an impressive 2.49 ERA and an 8-3 win-loss record this season. The left-handed pitcher has been a key asset, projected to strike out an average of 7.2 batters today. However, his projections indicate he may allow 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks, suggesting a potential challenge despite his excellent overall performance this season. Meanwhile, Hunter Dobbins gets the call for the Red Sox. Dobbins has a 4.06 ERA and a 2-1 record but has faced difficulties, projecting to pitch just 4.4 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs.

Offensively, the Yankees rank as the 1st best in MLB, a testament to their powerful lineup that features an elite batting average and home run rate. The Red Sox have also put together a solid offense, ranking 6th overall, but they will face a tough challenge against Rodon. The Yankees' strengths may exploit Dobbins' weaknesses, particularly given the Red Sox's high strikeout rate.

Despite the Yankees being significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -210, the projections suggest they could surpass their implied team total of 4.99 runs. The total for the game sits at an average 8.5 runs, hinting at an exciting showdown in the Bronx.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Romy Gonzalez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In the last week's worth of games, Paul Goldschmidt's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Anthony Volpe has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.07 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+5.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.11, New York Yankees 4.77

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

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