Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on September 15, 2024, the stakes couldn't be higher in this rivalry matchup. The Yankees currently hold a strong record of 86-63, positioning themselves well as they chase a playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are sitting at 75-74 and are striving to finish the season on a positive note, but they aren’t in contention for the division title.

In their most recent outing, the Red Sox got the better of the Yankees, dealing New York a significant blow. The fourth game in their matchup against the Red Sox will see Carlos Rodon take the mound for New York. Rodon has had an impressive season, with a 14-9 record and an ERA of 4.21, indicating he’s been above average. He’s also projected to strike out 7.5 batters today, which bodes well against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other hand, the Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford. However, the Yankees' offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking 3rd in MLB and leading the league in home runs. This offensive firepower, combined with Rodon’s high strikeout rate, suggests an uphill battle for Boston.

According to projections from the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favored to win, with expectations of scoring around 5.21 runs. In contrast, the Red Sox are projected to manage about 4.14 runs, highlighting the challenges they face. With both teams looking to assert their dominance, fans can expect an electric atmosphere at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford's fastball spin rate of 2503 rpm grades out in the 93rd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, batters like Trevor Story who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 9% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox grades them out as the #7 club in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.14 vs New York Yankees 5.21

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