Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on September 12, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees, boasting an impressive record of 84-62, are in a strong position, while the Red Sox sit at 74-72, having had an average season. This game marks the first of the series between these historic rivals, and the Yankees are looking to build on their recent success, particularly after their latest outing, an extra-inning win over the Kansas City Royals.

Projected to start for the Yankees is Nestor Cortes, who has had a solid season despite a 9-10 record and a respectable ERA of 3.97. Cortes ranks as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he can be a valuable asset on the mound. His projections suggest he’ll pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 6.2 batters—numbers that signal a favorable matchup against a Red Sox offense that, while ranked 6th best in MLB, may struggle against a lefty like Cortes.

On the opposing side, Cooper Criswell takes the mound for Boston. With a 4.11 ERA and a less-than-ideal projection of 4.5 innings pitched, 3.0 earned runs allowed, and only 3.4 strikeouts, Criswell faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees lineup that is not only the 2nd best offense in MLB but also leads the league with 215 home runs. This powerful offense could exploit Criswell's weaknesses, especially given his tendency to allow hard contact.

The Yankees are currently favored with a moneyline of -160, indicating high confidence in their ability to secure a win. Meanwhile, the Game Total is set at an average 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. With the Yankees' strong performance at home and Cortes on the mound, they look poised to take the early lead in this crucial series.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In today's game, Danny Jansen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.4% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Boston's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees projected offense grades out as the strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 106 games (+17.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.21 vs New York Yankees 5.62

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