Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a pivotal series. The Mets boast a record of 75-64, placing them in contention but not leading their division, while the Red Sox sit at 70-69, showing signs of mediocrity this season. The stakes are high as this is the third game of the series, and the Mets will look to build on their recent success.

In their previous matchup, the Mets beat up on the Sox, with standout performances from players like Francisco Lindor, who has been their top hitter over the last week. Lindor has recorded 9 hits, 7 runs, and 6 RBIs over his last 7 games, showcasing his offensive prowess. On the other hand, the Red Sox have struggled to find their rhythm, with Tyler O'Neill being their best hitter recently, but his performance hasn’t matched the impact of Lindor.

On the mound, Tylor Megill will take the hill for the Mets. Despite being ranked as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB, Megill has shown flashes of potential, although his 4.82 ERA indicates he has faced challenges this year. His high strikeout rate of 26.3% might prove advantageous against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts. Conversely, Tanner Houck, projected to start for the Red Sox, carries a much more impressive 3.12 ERA and is ranked as the 31st best pitcher in MLB. However, his recent luck may not hold, as the projections suggest he could regress.

With both offenses ranking in the top 10—Mets at 10th and Red Sox at 5th—this game promises to be a contest of power and skill. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. Bettors should watch the odds closely, as both teams carry a moneyline of -110, reflecting a balanced clash.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the worst among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tallying 15.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Tylor Megill falls in the 23rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jeff McNeil's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 83.7-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 105 games (+13.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 away games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+10.25 Units / 15% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.36 vs New York Mets 3.68

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