Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/26/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Boston Red Sox on May 26, 2025, in an Interleague matchup at American Family Field. Both teams are having underwhelming seasons, with the Brewers sitting at 26-28 and the Red Sox at 27-28. The Brewers' offensive struggles have contributed to a ranking of 25th in MLB, while the Red Sox boast a much more respectable 5th place ranking. The magnitude of this game lies in the opportunity for the Brewers to turn their season around against a competitive opponent.

Chad Patrick is projected to start for the Brewers, bringing a Win/Loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.23. While his ERA is solid, his xFIP of 4.47 suggests he may have been riding a bit of luck. Conversely, Garrett Crochet is slated to take the mound for the Red Sox. Crochet has been stellar this season, with an outstanding 1.98 ERA and a Power Ranking that places him 8th among MLB starting pitchers. This matchup pits a right-handed pitcher against a lackluster Brewers offense that ranks 26th in home runs.

The projections indicate that Patrick may struggle with hits allowed, as he is expected to give up 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could be problematic against a Red Sox lineup that is both powerful and efficient. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Brewers’ underdog status is reflected in their +135 moneyline, implying a team total of just 3.39 runs.

Given the Brewers' urgent need for a win and the favorable matchup against a high-groundball pitcher like Crochet, this game could present an opportunity for Milwaukee to surprise the odds and capitalize on any mistakes made by the Red Sox.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Given that groundball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over groundball bats, Garrett Crochet and his 45.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today's outing squaring off against 4 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Chad Patrick has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.23 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.66 — a 1.43 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 54 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 away games (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.23, Milwaukee Brewers 3.35

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

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