Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/27/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Boston Red Sox for the second game of their series on May 27, 2025, following a tight battle yesterday where the Brewers edged out the Red Sox 3-2. As both teams hover around .500, the Brewers sit at 27-28, while the Red Sox are slightly below them at 27-29. This matchup bears significance, particularly for the Brewers, who are looking to build momentum after their recent win.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Aaron Civale, who has struggled this season with a 0-1 record and a troublesome 9.00 ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate of 15.6%, there is a silver lining; Civale's 6.25 xFIP suggests he may have been unfortunate and could improve moving forward. Conversely, Richard Fitts will take the ball for the Red Sox. Fitts has shown promise, boasting a solid 3.18 ERA, although his 4.29 xFIP indicates he may be due for some regression.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 25th in the league, struggling to generate consistent run support, while the Red Sox offense is performing markedly better, checking in as the 6th best in MLB. This disparity presents a potential advantage for Boston as they face a vulnerable pitcher in Civale. Additionally, the projections anticipate that the Brewers will score around 4.35 runs, which is a solid total given their recent struggles.

The Brewers' bullpen ranks 21st in MLB, further complicating their chances if they find themselves in a close game. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's bullpen ranks 9th, presenting a significant edge in late-game situations. As the Brewers aim to leverage their home field advantage, the matchup between these two teams promises to be closely contested, with the Red Sox looking to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Brewers lineup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox (24.9% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-most strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Aaron Civale will allow an average of 4.5 singles in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Grading out in the 96th percentile for base-stealing, Brice Turang has average 35.1 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year.

• Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 away games (+9.95 Units / 58% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.25, Milwaukee Brewers 4.13

• Date: May 27, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Richard Fitts - Red Sox
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

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