Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/4/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Kyle Tyler - Marlins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on July 4, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, the dynamics between these two clubs are stark. The Marlins are enduring a rough season, sitting at 30-56, while the Red Sox boast a respectable 46-39 record. This interleague matchup marks the third game of the series, and the Red Sox have been riding high, with Rafael Devers leading the charge. Devers has been on fire over the last week, hitting .368 with a 1.218 OPS, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs in just 5 games.

On the mound, the Marlins are set to start Kyle Tyler, who has had a challenging season. Tyler, ranked as the 307th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started only 2 games this year, holding a 0-1 record with a fortunate 3.38 ERA. His xFIP of 4.61 suggests that luck has played a significant role in his performance, and he's projected to allow 2.8 earned runs over an average of 4.8 innings today.

The Red Sox counter with Nick Pivetta, who has also had a mixed season. Pivetta, with a 4-5 record and a 4.52 ERA over 12 starts, has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.60 xFIP indicates he might perform better going forward. Pivetta is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs today, which presents a more favorable outlook compared to Tyler.

Offensively, the Marlins have struggled mightily, ranking 30th in MLB in overall offense, home runs, and walks. Their best hitter recently, Emmanuel Rivera, has been a bright spot with a .455 average and 1.045 OPS over the last week. However, their lack of power and plate discipline could be a significant disadvantage against Pivetta.

In contrast, the Red Sox offense ranks 6th in MLB, both overall and in batting average, with a solid 11th in home runs and 6th in stolen bases. This disparity in offensive firepower is likely to play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Marlins have a 44% win probability, slightly higher than the 40% implied by current betting odds. This suggests potential value in betting on the Marlins as underdogs, especially considering the public's reluctance to back a struggling team. However, with the Red Sox's superior offense and pitching edge, they remain the favorites with a 56% projected win probability.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O'Neill, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to average, Kyle Tyler has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last year's 90.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins bats jointly grade out 24th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 away games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.09 vs Miami Marlins 4.28

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