Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins (30-54) are set to host the Boston Red Sox (44-39) at LoanDepot Park on July 2, 2024, in an interleague matchup that positions two teams on opposite ends of the performance spectrum. The Marlins are enduring a tough season with the worst offense in the league, while the Red Sox find themselves above .500 and eyeing a potential playoff push.

Valente Bellozo will take the mound for the Marlins. Despite his pristine 0.00 ERA in one start, advanced metrics like his 5.55 xFIP indicate that regression is likely. Bellozo’s low strikeout rate (11.1%) could play in his favor against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in MLB in strikeouts, giving him a punching chance despite the odds.

The Red Sox will counter with Kutter Crawford, who is enjoying a solid season with a 3.54 ERA across 17 starts. While his 4.05 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved, Crawford should be comfortable facing a Marlins lineup that ranks last in home runs and 23rd in batting average. The Marlins' struggles at the plate make it an uphill battle against Boston’s above-average starter.

Offensively, the Red Sox are significantly stronger, ranking 7th in MLB in both team batting average and overall offense. Jarren Duran, their standout hitter, has been a catalyst with a .288 average and an .841 OPS, while Rafael Devers has been on fire lately, boasting a 1.471 OPS with three home runs over the last seven games.

Meanwhile, Miami’s offense has been lethargic all season. Emmanuel Rivera has been a rare bright spot for the Marlins recently, hitting .400 with a 1.171 OPS over the past week. However, the team’s cumulative struggles at the plate might be too great to overcome against a Boston team that has been consistent in several offensive metrics.

Betting odds reflect these disparities, with the Marlins listed as +145 underdogs and the Red Sox carrying a -165 favorite tag. Given the current form and stats, Boston's implied win probability of 60% seems a fair assessment. The Red Sox's superior offense and above-average pitching edge them closer to victory against a Marlins squad struggling to find its footing.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford has used his slider 8.2% more often this year (22.2%) than he did last year (14%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.86 vs Miami Marlins 4.31

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.