Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 7/21/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • James Paxton - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On July 21, 2024, Dodger Stadium will host an interleague matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. The Dodgers, boasting a 58-41 record, are having a stellar season. They sit comfortably in the standings and look to continue their strong form. Meanwhile, the Red Sox come in with a 53-44 record, having an above-average season but still in contention.

The home team will send James Paxton to the mound. Paxton, with a 7-2 record and a 4.38 ERA over 16 starts, has been fortunate according to his peripherals, highlighted by a 5.36 xFIP, suggesting a decline might be imminent. His low strikeout rate (15.6 K%) could work in his favor today against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Opposing him is Boston's Kutter Crawford, who is enjoying a solid year with a 3.00 ERA and a 6-7 record through 20 starts. However, his 4.05 xFIP implies he's been somewhat lucky. His high flyball rate (42% FB) could spell trouble against a powerful Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in home runs this season. Crawford’s low walk rate (6.7 BB%) might mitigate one of the Dodgers' biggest strengths, as they rank 2nd in walks.

Offensively, the Dodgers hold the edge with the top-ranked lineup in MLB. Their batting average ranks 6th, and they also have considerable home run power. The Red Sox are no slouches, though, ranking 6th in overall offense and 4th in batting average. Both offenses are capable of putting runs on the board, as reflected in the game total set at 9.0 runs.

The bullpen battle could also be pivotal. The Dodgers' bullpen ranks 8th and looks strong, while the Red Sox rank 24th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, potentially giving the Dodgers an advantage in the latter innings.

With the Dodgers’ implied win probability set at 52%, the betting markets project a tight game. However, given the advantages in offense and bullpen, the Dodgers might just have the edge to secure this win and maintain momentum in their quest for postseason glory.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tyler O'Neill has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher James Paxton has a pitch-to-contact profile (14th percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton's curveball usage has risen by 9.2% from last season to this one (19.3% to 28.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.2-mph to 102.6-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chris Taylor, James Outman, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.26 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.44

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.