Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 6/23/2025

The Los Angeles Angels and the Boston Red Sox are set to face off on June 23, 2025, at Angel Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Angels holding a record of 37-40, while the Red Sox sit at 40-39. The Angels are struggling this season, ranked 24th in MLB offense and 30th in bullpen effectiveness, which raises concerns as they prepare to take on a Red Sox team with a stronger offensive lineup.

In this game, the Angels will rely heavily on starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz, who has had a rough season with a Win/Loss record of 3-8 and an ERA of 5.38. Kochanowicz projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, but his 4.67 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. He faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 8th in MLB offense and has the 3rd most strikeouts, which might play into the young pitcher’s favor as he is a low-strikeout pitcher (17.2 K%).

On the other side, Walker Buehler, projected to start for the Red Sox, has also had a challenging season, with a 5-5 record and an alarming ERA of 5.95. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs. However, his 4.21 xFIP indicates he too has faced some misfortune this year.

With the Angels’ power ranking at 24th in offense and the Red Sox at 8th, this matchup heavily favors Boston's lineup. The Angels’ high implied team total of 4.34 runs suggests they may have a fighting chance, but their recent struggles against quality pitching could hinder their performance. Bettors should keep an eye on how this game unfolds, especially with the projections hinting at a closer contest than the records might suggest.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler's four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 6.6% from last year to this one (29% to 22.4%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#3-worst of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz's fastball velocity of 95 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the last week's worth of games, Logan O'Hoppe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Moore, Jo Adell, Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 away games (+12.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 35% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.62, Los Angeles Angels 4.67

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.