Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive stretch of the season. The Astros sit with a record of 68-56, while the Red Sox are close behind at 65-59. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, making this matchup significant in the context of their playoff aspirations.

In their last game, the Astros defeated the Red Sox in a 5-4 ballgame. They'll look to get another win against a Red Sox squad that ranks 3rd in overall offensive performance. This matchup becomes even more intriguing with Ronel Blanco projected to start for the Astros. Blanco has had an excellent season with a 2.89 ERA, despite being ranked 169th among starting pitchers. His performance, however, might have been buoyed by some fortune, as indicated by his higher 4.13 xFIP. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing around 2.6 earned runs, which is average.

On the other hand, Nick Pivetta takes the mound for Boston. With a 4.49 ERA and a 90th overall ranking among starting pitchers, Pivetta has been slightly above average and is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs in 5.3 innings. His high strikeout rate could be challenged by the Astros’ low-strikeout offense, potentially giving Houston an edge.

The Astros' offense, which ranks 2nd in team batting average, will need to capitalize against Pivetta, who has struggled with allowing hits and walks this season. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a tight contest, but the Astros' implied team total of 4.40 runs suggests confidence in their ability to score. As both teams vie for a crucial win, fans can expect an exciting matchup at Minute Maid Park.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has utilized his slider 12.4% more often this year (29.8%) than he did last year (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Boston Red Sox bats jointly rank 5th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (92.7 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jon Singleton stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 104 games (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 70 games (+20.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.46 vs Houston Astros 4.73

Get daily MLB picks here.