Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Pick – 8/12/2025
The Boston Red Sox will face the Houston Astros on Tuesday night at Daikin Park in Houston. Boston aims to bounce back against a Houston team that beat them in a tight game on Monday night. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning and that makes this one of the most significant games of the night in MLB. Continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Astros prediction for this game from Texas.
Our Red Sox vs Astros Prediction
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 12, 2025, 8:10 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Dustin May (BOS) vs Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: SCHN (Houston), NESN (Boston)
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Dustin May is seeking his first win with the Red Sox after a challenging debut. May has a 6-8 record and a 4.93 ERA this season and his performance tonight could determine the game’s outcome. Spencer Arrighetti has struggled this season. He has a 1-2 record with a 7.43 ERA. A strong home performance could be crucial for the Astros and for Arrighetti’s confidence going forward.
Key Players
- Roman Anthony (BOS): The rookie outfielder has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games.
- Jose Altuve (HOU): The veteran second baseman continues to be a key contributor for the Astros. He has 21 home runs and a .287 batting average.
- Chas McCormick (HOU): McCormick’s recent power surge could provide the Astros with a much-needed boost against Boston.
Recent Team Streaks
- Houston has won two straight games and three of their last four.
- The Red Sox have lost three straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Roman Anthony | Over 0.5 Hits |
| Jose Altuve | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Chas McCormick | Over 0.5 home runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Astros have a 53.8% win rate when favored this season.
- Boston has won 46.7% of games when listed as the underdog.
- Houston improved to 36-24 at home with last night’s win.
- Boston is 26-33 on the road for the year.
- The Red Sox lead the season series with the Astros 3-1 in spite of Monday’s result.
Red Sox vs Astros Model Projection
- Score Projection: Astros 5, Red Sox 4
- Win Probability: Astros 52%, Red Sox 48%
Final Thoughts
I think this game could go either way on the scoreboard. Both teams have explosive offenses and are sending inconsistent arms to the mound. I think that a better play than taking a side in this game is to take the game to go over 8.5 runs. We should see plenty of offense here, just as we did in Monday’s series opener. We’ll take the over to hit deep in the heart of Texas.
