Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Pick – 8/11/2025
The Boston Red Sox will visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Monday night in what could be the game of the night in MLB. Boston will send its ace to the mound against a returning starting pitcher for the Astros who is looking to make an impact in his first start of the season. Here, I have given you all the info you need to make an informed Red Sox vs Astros prediction for Monday’s game.
Our Red Sox vs Astros Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, 2025, 8:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs Cristian Javier (HOU)
- Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
- Broadcast: SCHN and NESN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Garrett Crochet has been dominant this season for the Red Sox. He has a 13-4 record, a 2.24 ERA, and 183 strikeouts in 148.1 innings. His control and ability to limit hard contact have been his calling cards.
Cristian Javier’s return from Tommy John surgery is the story of the night for Houston. He has completed five rehab starts but will likely be limited in pitch count as he eases back into MLB action. His presence bolsters a rotation depleted by injuries. But rust remains a question for Javier in this game.
Key Players
- Boston: Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, and Alex Bregman will all be key in trying to chase Javier from this game early.
- Houston: Jose Altuve had a productive series against the Yankees over the weekend. This will also be Carlos Correa’s emotional home debut following the trade deadline.
Recent team streaks
- The Red Sox have lost two games in a row and will look to rebound in this series opener.
- Houston took two out of three games against the Yankees over the weekend.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jarren Duran | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Alex Bregman | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Jose Altuve | Over 0.5 RBI |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Red Sox lead the season series against Houston 3-0.
- Boston outscored Houston 15-5 over those three games at Fenway Park.
- Boston is 65-54 overall but just 26-32 on the road this year.
- Houston has a 35-24 home record.
Red Sox vs Astros Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston 5 – Houston 3
Win Probability: Boston 58%, Houston 42%
Final Thoughts
The home/road splits for these teams certainly point in the direction of the Houston Astros tonight. But those numbers don’t account for the starting pitching advantage that Boston has in this game. Crochet is firing on all cylinders for the Sox, while I expect some struggles in Cristian Javier’s return to action for Houston. I’ll lay the runline with Boston here, as they should be able to create separation against Houston’s pitching staff.
