Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons, with records of 68-67 and 69-65, respectively. This series opener holds significance as both clubs look to gain momentum in their push toward a potential Wild Card spot.

In their last outings, the Tigers suffered a 3-0 loss to the Angels, while the Red Sox were shut out 2-0 by the Blue Jays. Notably, the Tigers have struggled offensively this season, ranking 23rd in MLB, which could pose challenges against a potent Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd overall. The Tigers’ best hitter, Riley Greene, has been solid, but their offense lacks the firepower seen in Boston's Jarren Duran, who boasts a .292 batting average and an impressive 32 stolen bases.

On the mound, Casey Mize is projected to start for Detroit. Despite being ranked 93rd among MLB starters, Mize's 3.69 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season. He’ll face Tanner Houck, who is 32nd in Power Rankings and has an impressive 3.23 ERA. However, Houck's recent start was less than stellar, as he allowed 6 earned runs in his last outing.

Betting markets have set the Tigers' moneyline at +100, indicating a close matchup, while projections suggest the Tigers will score around 4.19 runs, compared to the Red Sox's 4.58. With a Game Total of 8.5 runs, this matchup could be a tight contest, especially as Casey Mize's low strikeout rate may play into the hands of Boston's high-strikeout offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 14.8 outs per start this year on average, Casey Mize falls in the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Parker Meadows is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Detroit Tigers hitters jointly have been one of the worst in baseball this year ( 10th-worst) when assessing their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 42 away games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 37 games (+29.30 Units / 79% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.58 vs Detroit Tigers 4.19

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