Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Boston Red Sox at Comerica Park for the third game of their series. The Tigers are off to an impressive start this season with a record of 28-15, while the Red Sox sit at a .500 mark of 22-22. Detroit's strong performance is buoyed by an elite pitching staff and a potent offense ranked 6th in MLB, particularly evident as they look to build on their recent success.

In their last meeting, the Tigers continued their winning ways, showcasing their depth by defeating the Red Sox decisively. Tarik Skubal, projected to start for Detroit, is having a stellar season, currently ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His ERA of 2.08 reflects his dominance on the mound, and he projects to allow an average of just 1.7 earned runs today, alongside a strong strikeout rate of 7.6 K's per game. This matchup against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in most strikeouts could serve as a favorable scenario for Skubal to display his abilities further.

On the other hand, Boston will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has struggled to maintain consistency. Despite a respectable ERA of 2.78, his higher xFIP of 3.73 suggests that he may have been fortunate thus far. Dobbins projects to pitch a mere 4.9 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs with a concerning strikeout rate of just 4.2, which may prove detrimental against a Tigers lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.

With the Tigers positioned as -215 favorites, their offense, which ranks 4th in batting average and 7th in home runs, looks to capitalize on Dobbins’ vulnerabilities. Conversely, Boston's offense, while respectable at 8th overall, faces a daunting challenge as they attempt to overcome Detroit's strong bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating expectations of a pitching duel, but the Tigers' superior season performance offers a significant edge.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kristian Campbell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox (24.4% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy team of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Because flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Tarik Skubal and his 44.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position today matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Riley Greene has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.73 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.27, Detroit Tigers 4.02

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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