Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/13/2025

The Detroit Tigers will host the Boston Red Sox on May 13, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup. The Tigers, currently holding a strong 27-15 record, are enjoying a solid season, especially with their offense ranking 6th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit at 22-21, having an average year but still boasting a potent lineup that ranks 10th in offensive performance.

In their last meeting, the Tigers put on an impressive display, winning decisively and continuing their strong form. This game marks the second in the series. Detroit will rely on Keider Montero, who, despite being ranked 286th among starting pitchers, has shown flashes of potential. Montero's 4.15 ERA suggests he has been somewhat lucky this season, and he projects to struggle against a high-strikeout Red Sox offense.

Brayan Bello takes the mound for Boston, boasting an exceptional 2.01 ERA and a perfect 2-0 record this season. Although projections indicate he might face challenges with hits and walks, Bello’s average innings pitched (5.3) and his solid performance make him a reliable option for the Red Sox.

The Tigers’ bullpen ranks 1st in MLB, giving them a significant advantage late in close games. With Detroit's elite offense facing a Red Sox team that has shown vulnerability, this game could tilt in favor of the Tigers. The current moneyline is tight, with Detroit at -105 and Boston at -115, suggesting the odds-makers expect a close contest. Given the Tigers’ recent form and home-field advantage, they might just edge out the Red Sox in this critical matchup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Typically, bats like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Keider Montero.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 11.7° mark is among the lowest in MLB this year (#25 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero's sinker percentage has risen by 14% from last year to this one (7.7% to 21.7%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the past 7 days, Gleyber Torres's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.67, Detroit Tigers 4.1

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

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